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The Signal

2021 Canadian Federal Election forecast from Vox Pop Labs

If the election were held today, the Liberals would win the most seats. Updated daily, The Signal predicts the election outcome using a model that draws on hundreds of polls. See methodology for details.
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No. of {{option}} seats each party would win

The circled figure represents the number of seats a party is estimated to win. The figures to the right and left of the estimate represent the upper and lower bounds, respectively, of a 95 per cent prediction interval.
Majority {{total}} seats

Evolution of the {{option}} vote

The time series graph models vote share over time for each of the parties. Select a specific day in the series to see detailed vote shares for each party.

Riding projections

{{regionName}} riding projections

Select a province to view the projected vote share for each of its federal ridings. Vote share at the riding level is extrapolated from national and regional estimates.
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Riding Map Projections

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